Last time around, I did pretty well in my prediction in which Barack Obama won the Presidential election with 365 Electoral Votes and defeated John McCain by 7%. I had 364 and 7. I called for 7 Democratic pick-ups in the US Senate and 24 in the House of Representatives. I believe it was 6 and 21. Not bad.
So, here’s my call for 2012:
President: Barack Obama wins with 303 Electoral votes. In the “close” states the media is highlighting, the President will carry New Hampshire, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and OHIO. Romney will take back Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri and Florida, but he’ll finish with 235.
Margin of victory will be slightly over 1%. I’ll say 49.6 to 48.3, with the rest going to third-party candidates.
US Senate: No net pick-ups for either party. It’ll remain 53 Dems / 47 Republicans
US House: Right now, Republicans lead 240-190 with 5 vacancies. I’ll say we end up Republicans 233, Democrats 202.
Aside from the Presidential election, the race I’ll be following closest is in my own US Congressional District (CA-33) in which Independent Bill Bloomfield is taking on 19-term Democratic incumbent Henry Waxman. I’m actively campaigning for Bloomfield — it’d be great to see some independent leadership in Washington D.C.!